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Luana Lopes Lara is the world's youngest self-made woman billionaire, by Forbes' count. In 2018, she co-founded Kalshi, a platform where anyone can look up the odds on things that haven't happened yet. This May, the company raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation. Her entire job is watching what people bet real money on. So I spent this conversation asking her what the board already knows.
What actually changes for a normal person by the end of this year? Will 2026 feel lighter or heavier for most people? Will any jobs suddenly become safer? And of course, how much should I be relying on the public's opinion versus reality?
*Timestamps:*
0:00 — Intro
1:16 — The market Luana's team watches most right now
3:04 — What people ask to bet on now vs a year ago
4:05 — The layoffs market and why 73% was a number you could trust
6:20 — How a New York bar used a market as insurance
7:34 — Why 70% of Kalshi users never place a trade
8:50 — One number for the sentiment of a whole country
11:32 — What actually changes for you by the end of this year
13:10 — Will 2026 feel lighter or heavier financially?
14:00 — Which jobs get safer from here
14:26 — The 1% chance on Kalshi that came true anyway
16:51 — How agents changed the way she runs 170 people
18:22 — The weekly planning agent you could copy tomorrow
19:57 — Why she put engineers inside design and legal
23:27 — How long can you stay a solo founder with agents?
26:12 — What Kalshi looks for in job interviews now
28:50 — What years of ballet taught her about building Kalshi
30:17 — How suing the U.S. government helped Kalshi grow
31:48 — Luana's advice for women building something hard
*Links:*
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